The current price is not an all-round rise, nor is it a historical high: In 2010, prices rose by "breaking 3", "breaking 4", and "breaking 5" in less than half a year. Everyone felt a bit panicked. Is China welcome? The period of rising prices?
Yao Jingyuan: Although last year's CPI may not exceed 3.5%, it is true that our price is a rising cycle. How should such an inflation rate be observed and analyzed?
First look at the international comparison. Different countries in different stages of economic development, price levels are inconsistent. Because of the unanimous development stage, we can make comparisons within the BRIC countries. In the first 11 months of 2010, China's CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year, Russia rose 7.6%, India rose 9.6%, and Brazil increased 5.25%. In the “BRIC countriesâ€, China’s economic growth rate is expected to reach 10% in 2010, which is the highest, and the price level of 3.2% is the lowest.
From a historical comparison point of view. After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, the average annual increase in CPI is about 5.6%. The current price level does not exceed the average of these 30 years.
Reporter: You have experienced inflation since the reform and opening up. What kind of situation is it considered as comprehensive inflation?
Yao Jingyuan: The highest inflation since the reform and opening up was 24.1% in 1994 and 18.8% in 1988. These two times are hyperinflation, or all-round inflation, and everything is increasing in price. Many people will remember the rush to buy in the store. There are people who want to buy even the unmovable fans. The salesman said, "I'm sorry, it's bad, it doesn't turn." The customer said, "It doesn't matter, I bought it back to repair."
Some people say that the current market is "everything goes up." This is wrong. When you look at the industrial sector, prices are basically stable, and there are many commodity prices that are very closely related to everyone and even have fallen sharply. Such as cars, in the 90s of last century, a Santana 200,000 yuan, and now a few million; 42-inch flat-panel TV 10 million a decade ago, and now only 5,000. Therefore, prices in the industrial sector are still stable, not comprehensive inflation.
The current round of rising food prices accounted for the bulk of the price. Therefore, the people feel that the reporter feels obvious: From the perspective of economics, under the circumstances of rapid economic growth, a moderate inflation is not terrible, but in the eyes of ordinary people, this may not be the case. Why do the people feel and react more strongly to rising prices?
Yao Jingyuan: This involves the structural characteristics of this round of rising prices.
This round of rising prices is the bulk of food prices. In the November 2010 CPI increase, food prices rose by 74%. Although cars and TVs are cutting prices, nobody buys cars or TVs every day. Foods have to be eaten every day, and vegetables have to be consumed. Therefore, the rise in food prices affects every one of us, especially the low-income groups. The Engel's coefficient of China, which is the proportion of expenditure on foodstuffs in total consumer spending, is about 36.5% in cities and 41.0% in rural areas, which is more than 20 percentage points higher than in developed countries. The lower the living standard, the higher the Engel's coefficient and the greater the impact of rising food prices. Therefore, the 16 articles issued by the State Council this time not only guarantee the supply, rectify the circulation, and maintain the market order, but also has a very important one, to provide subsidies for low-income people.
Reporter: Recently there was a post on the Internet. It was a netizen in Hangzhou and a netizen in Boston, USA, who compared the 21 kinds of food and gas prices in the two places. It was concluded that there are 12 kinds of goods in Hangzhou that are more expensive than Boston. What do you think about this? ?
Yao Jingyuan: For commodities such as vegetables, the costs of preservation and circulation in China and the United States are different, and they are not as good as each other. The international comparison generally uses the purchasing power evaluation method, which is carried out with the same standard product, such as McDonald's, Coca-Cola, and so on.
To compare the prices of a country, we must also look at supply and demand. Everyone knows that U.S. technology is the first in the world. In fact, U.S. agriculture is also the world's number one. It is not only production but it is the world's largest in terms of scale, industrialization, and commercialization. It is normal for American agricultural product prices to have a certain advantage, and it is a manifestation of people's core competitiveness. Although China is a large agricultural country, our agricultural foundation is too weak and lags far behind the United States. Therefore, I think that although this comparison does not have much significance in economics, let us see our own problems. In the future, we must strengthen the work of agriculture, rural areas and farmers.
Taking the circulation system of agricultural products, the mung beans and garlic all over the world will not become investment products, but we do have such problems. What do you mean? Explain that the circulation system of our agricultural products is too weak. Everyone says that Hong Kong is cheaper than the mainland, but Hong Kong's agricultural products are all on the mainland. Why is it cheaper than us? This is mainly the issue of circulation. People have a sound circulation system and few links.
The Party Central Committee has talked about the "three rural issues" problem for so many years is the most important task of the whole party, but how many people really understand? The rise in prices has really made many people realize that agriculture is an important foundation, agriculture is stable, the world is stable, grain prices are stable, and prices are stable.
If food crops fail, the economy is overheated, and currency issuance and credit supply are excessive, the “three meets†may lead to full-scale inflation. Reporter: In 2011, was our price inflation pressure high? Please analyze where the pressure comes from?
Yao Jingyuan: This year's price pressures are relatively large. From the perspective of the international environment, the pressure of rising international commodity prices will be greater than in 2010. This is due not only to the excessive liquidity in the United States, but also to the fact that some developing countries have developed very fast, such as China, India and Russia. Despite the slow growth of developed countries and the rapid growth of emerging markets, the demand will be large. Therefore, the increase in the prices of large international basic commodities may be greater than in 2010. This means that imported inflation will have a greater impact on us.
From the domestic point of view, I always believe that if there are three things to meet, inflation will not survive. The first is the lack of food, the second is the overheating of the economy, and the third is the oversupply and placement of money and credit.
Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the law of grain in China is a five-year cycle. It is the two abundances, two levels, and one apology. Now a bumper harvest for seven consecutive years broke the rule of 60 years because of "good policies, hard work,
"Days to help." Policy is good, people work hard, and they will not change in 2011. That is, there are uncertainties in the day's help. Now that our agricultural foundation is still weak, we will encounter serious natural disasters, and we will suffer greater losses. 1994 Both inflation in 1988 and the first manifested itself as a reduction in food production.
There is another, we must pay attention to prevent the economy from overheating. 2011 is the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. Some provinces plan to double their “Twelve Five Years†period, and doubling the number means that the annual growth rate of these provinces will exceed 15%. If everyone is doing so fast, the economic growth rate is too fast and it is hot, and prices are obviously unreliable. Therefore, we must handle these three relationships this year, which is to maintain steady economic growth, increase structural readjustment, and manage inflation expectations.
There are also liquidity issues. Last year, the Bank raised the deposit reserve ratio six times and raised interest rates twice. It has done a lot of work, but the recovery of liquidity is not a matter of overnight. We cannot simply criticize monetary policy for "having made so many votes." If we return to 2008, 15% of our companies are forced to close their doors, 20% of companies are forced to cut production, and tens of millions are unemployed. Under those circumstances, if it is not a decisive plan to invest 4 trillion yuan to stimulate the economy, if it is not decisively implementing a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, we will not be able to take the lead out of the crisis in the world economy. I think that excess liquidity is the price we have to pay in order to overcome the crisis. This price also needs a digestive process. We cannot expect this year's inflation rate to come down quickly.
There are many favorable conditions for controlling the price increase this year; we must also strive to achieve "two synchronizations" in revenue growth.
Reporter: This year's control of rising prices, there are no favorable conditions?
Yao Jingyuan: There are two favorable conditions. One is that grain has been harvested for seven consecutive years and the country has sufficient stocks. Even if it fails to harvest, reserves can be released at any time. Important agricultural products, such as food, meat, sugar, cotton, edible oil, have physical reserves, and vegetables have no reserves. Therefore, I propose to establish a fund for the adjustment of agricultural product prices, which will be used to give growers and discounted products to circulation companies if they have no physical reserves, such as vegetables. Once unexpected weather changes cause the price of agricultural products to rise, they can also use it to subsidize low-income groups. Another is the fact that the overall supply of industrial products is in good condition and the supply capacity is abundant, and there are still many industries and products that still exceed supply. These two points are the material basis for controlling the general price level.
In addition, apart from continuing to implement the 16 measures introduced by the State Council this year, relevant departments will also take some measures to increase supply and ensure supply. The intensity of supporting agriculture and benefiting farmers will be greater, which will play a very important role in stabilizing prices this year. The role.
Reporter: The relationship between the Chinese economy and the world economy is becoming more and more close. Isn't our economy gradually globalized, and prices will surely gradually become in line with international standards? How can we allow ordinary people to share more fruits of economic growth and improve their ability to cope with inflation?
Yao Jingyuan: Economic globalization will make commodities and talents flow to higher-priced places. In the end, everyone’s prices are generally one level. As we participate in globalization and internationalization, we have experienced long-term low price changes in some areas. On the other hand, we should also believe that everyone’s income will also have a better increase under the influence of globalization.
I think that if China's economic guarantee increases by 10%, the 3%-5% inflation rate is normal. Because economic growth means increasing demand and increasing demand. With supply unchanged, it will inevitably push up prices. In any country in the world, any nation, as long as the economy is growing, prices are definitely on the rise. Of course, we should do two things as far as possible: the growth of residents' income and the growth of the national economy are synchronized, and the increase in laborers’ compensation and the increase in labor productivity are synchronized. Also, let the economic growth rate be higher than the inflation rate.
If two synchronizations are achieved and the economic growth rate is higher than the inflation rate, then such economic growth will be healthy and benign. Under such circumstances, prices will have a certain upward trend and it is normal.
Yao Jingyuan: Although last year's CPI may not exceed 3.5%, it is true that our price is a rising cycle. How should such an inflation rate be observed and analyzed?
First look at the international comparison. Different countries in different stages of economic development, price levels are inconsistent. Because of the unanimous development stage, we can make comparisons within the BRIC countries. In the first 11 months of 2010, China's CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year, Russia rose 7.6%, India rose 9.6%, and Brazil increased 5.25%. In the “BRIC countriesâ€, China’s economic growth rate is expected to reach 10% in 2010, which is the highest, and the price level of 3.2% is the lowest.
From a historical comparison point of view. After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, the average annual increase in CPI is about 5.6%. The current price level does not exceed the average of these 30 years.
Reporter: You have experienced inflation since the reform and opening up. What kind of situation is it considered as comprehensive inflation?
Yao Jingyuan: The highest inflation since the reform and opening up was 24.1% in 1994 and 18.8% in 1988. These two times are hyperinflation, or all-round inflation, and everything is increasing in price. Many people will remember the rush to buy in the store. There are people who want to buy even the unmovable fans. The salesman said, "I'm sorry, it's bad, it doesn't turn." The customer said, "It doesn't matter, I bought it back to repair."
Some people say that the current market is "everything goes up." This is wrong. When you look at the industrial sector, prices are basically stable, and there are many commodity prices that are very closely related to everyone and even have fallen sharply. Such as cars, in the 90s of last century, a Santana 200,000 yuan, and now a few million; 42-inch flat-panel TV 10 million a decade ago, and now only 5,000. Therefore, prices in the industrial sector are still stable, not comprehensive inflation.
The current round of rising food prices accounted for the bulk of the price. Therefore, the people feel that the reporter feels obvious: From the perspective of economics, under the circumstances of rapid economic growth, a moderate inflation is not terrible, but in the eyes of ordinary people, this may not be the case. Why do the people feel and react more strongly to rising prices?
Yao Jingyuan: This involves the structural characteristics of this round of rising prices.
This round of rising prices is the bulk of food prices. In the November 2010 CPI increase, food prices rose by 74%. Although cars and TVs are cutting prices, nobody buys cars or TVs every day. Foods have to be eaten every day, and vegetables have to be consumed. Therefore, the rise in food prices affects every one of us, especially the low-income groups. The Engel's coefficient of China, which is the proportion of expenditure on foodstuffs in total consumer spending, is about 36.5% in cities and 41.0% in rural areas, which is more than 20 percentage points higher than in developed countries. The lower the living standard, the higher the Engel's coefficient and the greater the impact of rising food prices. Therefore, the 16 articles issued by the State Council this time not only guarantee the supply, rectify the circulation, and maintain the market order, but also has a very important one, to provide subsidies for low-income people.
Reporter: Recently there was a post on the Internet. It was a netizen in Hangzhou and a netizen in Boston, USA, who compared the 21 kinds of food and gas prices in the two places. It was concluded that there are 12 kinds of goods in Hangzhou that are more expensive than Boston. What do you think about this? ?
Yao Jingyuan: For commodities such as vegetables, the costs of preservation and circulation in China and the United States are different, and they are not as good as each other. The international comparison generally uses the purchasing power evaluation method, which is carried out with the same standard product, such as McDonald's, Coca-Cola, and so on.
To compare the prices of a country, we must also look at supply and demand. Everyone knows that U.S. technology is the first in the world. In fact, U.S. agriculture is also the world's number one. It is not only production but it is the world's largest in terms of scale, industrialization, and commercialization. It is normal for American agricultural product prices to have a certain advantage, and it is a manifestation of people's core competitiveness. Although China is a large agricultural country, our agricultural foundation is too weak and lags far behind the United States. Therefore, I think that although this comparison does not have much significance in economics, let us see our own problems. In the future, we must strengthen the work of agriculture, rural areas and farmers.
Taking the circulation system of agricultural products, the mung beans and garlic all over the world will not become investment products, but we do have such problems. What do you mean? Explain that the circulation system of our agricultural products is too weak. Everyone says that Hong Kong is cheaper than the mainland, but Hong Kong's agricultural products are all on the mainland. Why is it cheaper than us? This is mainly the issue of circulation. People have a sound circulation system and few links.
The Party Central Committee has talked about the "three rural issues" problem for so many years is the most important task of the whole party, but how many people really understand? The rise in prices has really made many people realize that agriculture is an important foundation, agriculture is stable, the world is stable, grain prices are stable, and prices are stable.
If food crops fail, the economy is overheated, and currency issuance and credit supply are excessive, the “three meets†may lead to full-scale inflation. Reporter: In 2011, was our price inflation pressure high? Please analyze where the pressure comes from?
Yao Jingyuan: This year's price pressures are relatively large. From the perspective of the international environment, the pressure of rising international commodity prices will be greater than in 2010. This is due not only to the excessive liquidity in the United States, but also to the fact that some developing countries have developed very fast, such as China, India and Russia. Despite the slow growth of developed countries and the rapid growth of emerging markets, the demand will be large. Therefore, the increase in the prices of large international basic commodities may be greater than in 2010. This means that imported inflation will have a greater impact on us.
From the domestic point of view, I always believe that if there are three things to meet, inflation will not survive. The first is the lack of food, the second is the overheating of the economy, and the third is the oversupply and placement of money and credit.
Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the law of grain in China is a five-year cycle. It is the two abundances, two levels, and one apology. Now a bumper harvest for seven consecutive years broke the rule of 60 years because of "good policies, hard work,
"Days to help." Policy is good, people work hard, and they will not change in 2011. That is, there are uncertainties in the day's help. Now that our agricultural foundation is still weak, we will encounter serious natural disasters, and we will suffer greater losses. 1994 Both inflation in 1988 and the first manifested itself as a reduction in food production.
There is another, we must pay attention to prevent the economy from overheating. 2011 is the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. Some provinces plan to double their “Twelve Five Years†period, and doubling the number means that the annual growth rate of these provinces will exceed 15%. If everyone is doing so fast, the economic growth rate is too fast and it is hot, and prices are obviously unreliable. Therefore, we must handle these three relationships this year, which is to maintain steady economic growth, increase structural readjustment, and manage inflation expectations.
There are also liquidity issues. Last year, the Bank raised the deposit reserve ratio six times and raised interest rates twice. It has done a lot of work, but the recovery of liquidity is not a matter of overnight. We cannot simply criticize monetary policy for "having made so many votes." If we return to 2008, 15% of our companies are forced to close their doors, 20% of companies are forced to cut production, and tens of millions are unemployed. Under those circumstances, if it is not a decisive plan to invest 4 trillion yuan to stimulate the economy, if it is not decisively implementing a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, we will not be able to take the lead out of the crisis in the world economy. I think that excess liquidity is the price we have to pay in order to overcome the crisis. This price also needs a digestive process. We cannot expect this year's inflation rate to come down quickly.
There are many favorable conditions for controlling the price increase this year; we must also strive to achieve "two synchronizations" in revenue growth.
Reporter: This year's control of rising prices, there are no favorable conditions?
Yao Jingyuan: There are two favorable conditions. One is that grain has been harvested for seven consecutive years and the country has sufficient stocks. Even if it fails to harvest, reserves can be released at any time. Important agricultural products, such as food, meat, sugar, cotton, edible oil, have physical reserves, and vegetables have no reserves. Therefore, I propose to establish a fund for the adjustment of agricultural product prices, which will be used to give growers and discounted products to circulation companies if they have no physical reserves, such as vegetables. Once unexpected weather changes cause the price of agricultural products to rise, they can also use it to subsidize low-income groups. Another is the fact that the overall supply of industrial products is in good condition and the supply capacity is abundant, and there are still many industries and products that still exceed supply. These two points are the material basis for controlling the general price level.
In addition, apart from continuing to implement the 16 measures introduced by the State Council this year, relevant departments will also take some measures to increase supply and ensure supply. The intensity of supporting agriculture and benefiting farmers will be greater, which will play a very important role in stabilizing prices this year. The role.
Reporter: The relationship between the Chinese economy and the world economy is becoming more and more close. Isn't our economy gradually globalized, and prices will surely gradually become in line with international standards? How can we allow ordinary people to share more fruits of economic growth and improve their ability to cope with inflation?
Yao Jingyuan: Economic globalization will make commodities and talents flow to higher-priced places. In the end, everyone’s prices are generally one level. As we participate in globalization and internationalization, we have experienced long-term low price changes in some areas. On the other hand, we should also believe that everyone’s income will also have a better increase under the influence of globalization.
I think that if China's economic guarantee increases by 10%, the 3%-5% inflation rate is normal. Because economic growth means increasing demand and increasing demand. With supply unchanged, it will inevitably push up prices. In any country in the world, any nation, as long as the economy is growing, prices are definitely on the rise. Of course, we should do two things as far as possible: the growth of residents' income and the growth of the national economy are synchronized, and the increase in laborers’ compensation and the increase in labor productivity are synchronized. Also, let the economic growth rate be higher than the inflation rate.
If two synchronizations are achieved and the economic growth rate is higher than the inflation rate, then such economic growth will be healthy and benign. Under such circumstances, prices will have a certain upward trend and it is normal.
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