According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the urban workers' medical insurance fund operated smoothly in 2015, and the trend of fund income growth rate is lower than the growth rate of expenditures. However, there are still 6 regional co-ordinated funds that can be paid for less than 6 months.
The authoritative release of the data has also led to debates about whether the health care fund is “bottomed out†and whether the retired workers’ medical insurance is paying. So, how do you view and explain the trend of income growth of medical insurance funds below expenditure? In addition, with the further release of medical services demand and the rapid growth of medical expenses, is the health insurance fund sustainable? These are worthy of our attention and analysis.
Stress analysis
Unbalanced income and expenditure model
In the past 10 years, the average growth rate of total health expenditure in China has reached 16.89%, which is 1.20 times of the GDP growth rate of GDP during the same period. Excluding the major changes in the international macro-economy and market demand, according to the statistics for 2009-2016, the GDP growth rate in 2016 is 6.7% (National Development and Reform Commission forecast). Based on the prediction interval value (0.95), the author uses the R language for time series analysis and prediction. A regression forecast was made for the growth rate of GDP growth and total health expenditure in 2016 and 2017.
The forecast GDP growth rate in 2017 is 6.57%. It is not difficult to imagine that if this trend is not controlled, the fiscal gap will continue to expand, which will put a heavy burden on the government finance and the real economy. To this end, promote medical and health reform to improve the efficiency of health expenditures, regulate the government's health investment structure, promote the healthy and orderly transformation of health care, and become the top priority in safeguarding people's livelihood and promoting national health.
From the statistics of the past 10 years (2006-2015), it can be seen that the proportion of total health expenditure to GDP is increasing year by year. On the one hand, it shows the improvement of China's medical health level, on the other hand, it also suggests the importance of controlling the reasonable growth rate. According to the "Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health and Family Planning in China in 2015", the total national health expenditure in 2015 is expected to reach 405.77 billion yuan, of which: government health expenditure is 1,253.30 billion yuan (30.88%) Social health expenditure was 1,589.07 billion yuan (39.15%), and personal health expenditure was 1,216.40 billion yuan (29.97%). The total per capita health expenditure is 2,952 yuan, and the total health expenditure accounts for nearly 6.0% of GDP.
According to the statistical analysis of Figure 1, before 2007, China's GDP growth rate was greater than the growth rate of health expenditure. However, this pattern has reversed since 2008 and showed a huge gap in 2009. The main reasons are two:
1. The international macro economy has suffered a major crisis
In 2008, with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, an industry bubble triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis produced a domino effect, which eventually evolved into an international financial crisis, causing a serious impact on economic development worldwide.
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