According to data from the main food prices of the 50 cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 24th, from July 11 to 20, prices of 16 of 29 kinds of foods rose from the beginning of July. Compared with the data released last time, the price of food has decreased by 7 kinds, and the increase has also shown a significant decline.
“At present, whether the increase in the prices of production materials or consumer goods has gradually stabilized, this is a positive signal.†Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the price division of the National Development and Reform Commission, said on the 22nd when he was interviewed by the Chinese government network that from the historical experience, the current price rises. Near inflection point.
However, the price situation in the second half of the year is difficult to speak of. It is still the primary task of macroeconomic control to insist on stabilizing the overall price level. At present, the increase in the prices of agricultural products is intensively conducted to the terminal market. The prices of food products such as edible oils, cooked foods, cakes, and dairy products have started to increase one after another. Analysts believe that if the price rise of these products causes a chain reaction, high inflation will be a long process.
Rising prices of various kinds of agricultural products have slowed down The reporter reviewed the latest monitoring data released by the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Agriculture, Xinhua News Agency and other institutions and found that the prices of most agricultural products still rose slightly, showing signs of slowing down from the previous period.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, from July 11 to 17, domestic retail prices of small packaged rice and small packaged flours rose by 0.4% from the previous week, and the increase remained stable.
For fresh agricultural products, according to the Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Information Network of the Ministry of Agriculture, the national “vegetable basket wholesale price index†for the 28th (July 11 to July 17) this year was 195.85, down by 0.46 points from the previous week. The quarter-on-quarter increase in the prices of animal products and aquatic products was lower than that in June, and the prices of vegetables and fruits continued to fall from the previous quarter.
In the first half of the year, the price of pork, which contributed a lot to the increase in CPI, stopped the pace of soaring recently. According to the Xinhua News Agency’s national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials price system monitoring, since mid-June, the national pork price has continued to rise, and the pork price has stabilized at a high level since July 8. Between July 23 and July 9, about 70% of the provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities fluctuate less than 1.0% in pork prices. The price fluctuations of pig-toed pork and pork in the country do not exceed 0.3%. The year-on-year increase is still relatively large. It has narrowed, being 57.4% and 64.1% respectively.
In respect of the prices of production materials, according to the Xinhua News Agency's national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural product price system monitoring, compared with the previous week, domestic monitoring urea prices continued to rise from July 12 to 18, but the number of rising provinces and cities has decreased; The price of compound fertilizer continued to rise steadily; the prices of ammonium phosphate and potassium chloride were basically stable.
In order to further stabilize prices, the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held on the 22nd that it is necessary to insist on stabilizing the general price level as the primary task of macroeconomic control, strengthen government responsibilities, strengthen market protection, reduce circulation costs, and rectify market price order, for people with difficulties. Take effective and effective relief measures. We must fully seize harvest of agricultural crops throughout the year, earnestly grasp the production of autumn grain, promote stable development of livestock and aquaculture industries such as pigs, strengthen the construction of farmland water conservancy infrastructure, and earnestly implement flood prevention and disaster reduction.
Unpredictable price rises "inflection point" approaching?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released in June by the National Bureau of Statistics hit a new high in three years. Many agencies expect the 6.4% increase in CPI to have peaked during the year and prices are expected to fall in the second half of the year.
Zhou Wangjun believes that from the historical experience, the current round of price increases is approaching the inflection point. Including the current round of rising, since the beginning of this century, China has experienced three rounds of price increases. The first round was from 2003 to 2004 and lasted 27 months. The second round was from 2007 to 2008, which lasted 24 months. This round of price increases have continued for 24 months.
Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that in July, the CPI may still hit new heights, but it should fall after August, and the fourth quarter will fall even further. In the short term, there is no doubt that the CPI is at the top and turning point.
The above three rounds of rising prices have a strong correlation with rising pork prices. It is understood that due to the impact of the "SARS" and "bird flu" incidents, the first peak period of pig prices in the new century has occurred from 2003 to 2004. The second peak period, the price of pigs from 2007 to 2008, had a pig-to-food ratio of more than 10 to 1 at a time. Since the second half of last year, the price of pigs has risen again and recently broke the 2008 high.
However, at present, the inflection point of pig prices is still difficult to come. Feng Yonghui, Chief Analyst of Sogou.com, told the Economic Information Daily that because the pig market still has a gap between supply and demand, as long as the feed price does not drop sharply, the overall price decline will not be too large, and the lowest price after the pig price falls will remain at 8 To 8.5 yuan / kg.
In addition to the cycle of price fluctuations, Zhou Wangjun believes that the main reason for the better price situation in the second half of the year than in the first half of the year is that the price of bulk commodities in the international market has significantly declined from that in April. This effect has passed through the transmission and input to our country after September. Sexual impact will slow down; domestic monetary regulation will play an active role; the reduction of liquidity will play a fundamental role in maintaining price stability; and the supply of important domestic commodities will be guaranteed, including a bumper harvest of summer crops, a 2.5% increase in output, and meat and poultry. There is ample supply of eggs, vegetables, and industrial consumer goods.
Li Xunlei believes that the main factor affecting CPI lies in the core CPI (excluding food and energy impacts). The core CPI is mainly affected by the economic cycle, and the current economy is in decline. In the long term, CPI will still fall back.
Conducting old and new factors to interweave food companies to increase prices in succession Although the price situation in the second half of the year is slightly optimistic, the factors concerning the price increase between old and new agricultural products are intertwined, and there are still many uncertainties hidden. The new price increase factor includes the “additional increase†of the early-stage gains or the declining prices, which may make the annual price “high before the high priceâ€.
According to analysis, so far this year's high prices have been achieved when the price of vegetables has fallen below the historical average, and this situation is likely to change in the third quarter; historical data show that there are usually three quarters of a Both the price of food and the price of meat, etc., will continue to rise in the third quarter.
With the increase in production of summer grain, the early rice harvest has been more than half, and autumn grain production, which accounts for 70% of grain output, has become the focus of attention in the second half of the year. Qin Fu, director of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that, despite the good harvest, the price of corn and other foods increased due to sharp rise in the price of meat. The upside.
As a result of the state's regulatory policies, the rise in the prices of some agricultural products during the previous period is not obvious in terminal foods. With the continuous increase in the cost of raw materials, food companies have become more aggressive in their price increases.
Since the implementation of the "limit order" for edible oil in November last year, the operating pressure of edible oil production companies has continued to increase. Although several large companies have said that there is no price increase plan at present, prices of some products in the terminal market have started to rise. According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Commerce, since July 1st, the retail price of soyoil and peanut oil has increased significantly for two consecutive weeks.
According to another report, a number of catering companies, including McDonald's and Kung Fu, announced price increases. With the continuous high price of pork, the price of cakes and steamed buns such as Beijing Daoxiang Village and Qingfeng Baozipu was quietly raised.
The reporter saw a meat production company in a restaurant in Beijing posted a notice saying that because the cost of raw materials such as meat and starch soared, the company could not digest the cost pressure and raised the price of the product since July 15.
It is understood that the price increase of meat-pig spreads has exceeded 100% year-on-year, reaching a rare height in history. Feng Yonghui believes that this reflects that the slaughter companies have had to move the high pig prices to meat prices and eventually pass them on to consumers because of the recent reduction in pig sources and difficulties in grabbing pigs.
For this kind of price transmission, Li Xunlei believes that edible oil and other products do not have a large weight in the CPI. The key is that the price rise of these products should not cause a chain reaction. If there is a chain reaction, high inflation will be a long process.
“At present, whether the increase in the prices of production materials or consumer goods has gradually stabilized, this is a positive signal.†Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the price division of the National Development and Reform Commission, said on the 22nd when he was interviewed by the Chinese government network that from the historical experience, the current price rises. Near inflection point.
However, the price situation in the second half of the year is difficult to speak of. It is still the primary task of macroeconomic control to insist on stabilizing the overall price level. At present, the increase in the prices of agricultural products is intensively conducted to the terminal market. The prices of food products such as edible oils, cooked foods, cakes, and dairy products have started to increase one after another. Analysts believe that if the price rise of these products causes a chain reaction, high inflation will be a long process.
Rising prices of various kinds of agricultural products have slowed down The reporter reviewed the latest monitoring data released by the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Agriculture, Xinhua News Agency and other institutions and found that the prices of most agricultural products still rose slightly, showing signs of slowing down from the previous period.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, from July 11 to 17, domestic retail prices of small packaged rice and small packaged flours rose by 0.4% from the previous week, and the increase remained stable.
For fresh agricultural products, according to the Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Information Network of the Ministry of Agriculture, the national “vegetable basket wholesale price index†for the 28th (July 11 to July 17) this year was 195.85, down by 0.46 points from the previous week. The quarter-on-quarter increase in the prices of animal products and aquatic products was lower than that in June, and the prices of vegetables and fruits continued to fall from the previous quarter.
In the first half of the year, the price of pork, which contributed a lot to the increase in CPI, stopped the pace of soaring recently. According to the Xinhua News Agency’s national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials price system monitoring, since mid-June, the national pork price has continued to rise, and the pork price has stabilized at a high level since July 8. Between July 23 and July 9, about 70% of the provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities fluctuate less than 1.0% in pork prices. The price fluctuations of pig-toed pork and pork in the country do not exceed 0.3%. The year-on-year increase is still relatively large. It has narrowed, being 57.4% and 64.1% respectively.
In respect of the prices of production materials, according to the Xinhua News Agency's national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural product price system monitoring, compared with the previous week, domestic monitoring urea prices continued to rise from July 12 to 18, but the number of rising provinces and cities has decreased; The price of compound fertilizer continued to rise steadily; the prices of ammonium phosphate and potassium chloride were basically stable.
In order to further stabilize prices, the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held on the 22nd that it is necessary to insist on stabilizing the general price level as the primary task of macroeconomic control, strengthen government responsibilities, strengthen market protection, reduce circulation costs, and rectify market price order, for people with difficulties. Take effective and effective relief measures. We must fully seize harvest of agricultural crops throughout the year, earnestly grasp the production of autumn grain, promote stable development of livestock and aquaculture industries such as pigs, strengthen the construction of farmland water conservancy infrastructure, and earnestly implement flood prevention and disaster reduction.
Unpredictable price rises "inflection point" approaching?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released in June by the National Bureau of Statistics hit a new high in three years. Many agencies expect the 6.4% increase in CPI to have peaked during the year and prices are expected to fall in the second half of the year.
Zhou Wangjun believes that from the historical experience, the current round of price increases is approaching the inflection point. Including the current round of rising, since the beginning of this century, China has experienced three rounds of price increases. The first round was from 2003 to 2004 and lasted 27 months. The second round was from 2007 to 2008, which lasted 24 months. This round of price increases have continued for 24 months.
Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that in July, the CPI may still hit new heights, but it should fall after August, and the fourth quarter will fall even further. In the short term, there is no doubt that the CPI is at the top and turning point.
The above three rounds of rising prices have a strong correlation with rising pork prices. It is understood that due to the impact of the "SARS" and "bird flu" incidents, the first peak period of pig prices in the new century has occurred from 2003 to 2004. The second peak period, the price of pigs from 2007 to 2008, had a pig-to-food ratio of more than 10 to 1 at a time. Since the second half of last year, the price of pigs has risen again and recently broke the 2008 high.
However, at present, the inflection point of pig prices is still difficult to come. Feng Yonghui, Chief Analyst of Sogou.com, told the Economic Information Daily that because the pig market still has a gap between supply and demand, as long as the feed price does not drop sharply, the overall price decline will not be too large, and the lowest price after the pig price falls will remain at 8 To 8.5 yuan / kg.
In addition to the cycle of price fluctuations, Zhou Wangjun believes that the main reason for the better price situation in the second half of the year than in the first half of the year is that the price of bulk commodities in the international market has significantly declined from that in April. This effect has passed through the transmission and input to our country after September. Sexual impact will slow down; domestic monetary regulation will play an active role; the reduction of liquidity will play a fundamental role in maintaining price stability; and the supply of important domestic commodities will be guaranteed, including a bumper harvest of summer crops, a 2.5% increase in output, and meat and poultry. There is ample supply of eggs, vegetables, and industrial consumer goods.
Li Xunlei believes that the main factor affecting CPI lies in the core CPI (excluding food and energy impacts). The core CPI is mainly affected by the economic cycle, and the current economy is in decline. In the long term, CPI will still fall back.
Conducting old and new factors to interweave food companies to increase prices in succession Although the price situation in the second half of the year is slightly optimistic, the factors concerning the price increase between old and new agricultural products are intertwined, and there are still many uncertainties hidden. The new price increase factor includes the “additional increase†of the early-stage gains or the declining prices, which may make the annual price “high before the high priceâ€.
According to analysis, so far this year's high prices have been achieved when the price of vegetables has fallen below the historical average, and this situation is likely to change in the third quarter; historical data show that there are usually three quarters of a Both the price of food and the price of meat, etc., will continue to rise in the third quarter.
With the increase in production of summer grain, the early rice harvest has been more than half, and autumn grain production, which accounts for 70% of grain output, has become the focus of attention in the second half of the year. Qin Fu, director of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that, despite the good harvest, the price of corn and other foods increased due to sharp rise in the price of meat. The upside.
As a result of the state's regulatory policies, the rise in the prices of some agricultural products during the previous period is not obvious in terminal foods. With the continuous increase in the cost of raw materials, food companies have become more aggressive in their price increases.
Since the implementation of the "limit order" for edible oil in November last year, the operating pressure of edible oil production companies has continued to increase. Although several large companies have said that there is no price increase plan at present, prices of some products in the terminal market have started to rise. According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Commerce, since July 1st, the retail price of soyoil and peanut oil has increased significantly for two consecutive weeks.
According to another report, a number of catering companies, including McDonald's and Kung Fu, announced price increases. With the continuous high price of pork, the price of cakes and steamed buns such as Beijing Daoxiang Village and Qingfeng Baozipu was quietly raised.
The reporter saw a meat production company in a restaurant in Beijing posted a notice saying that because the cost of raw materials such as meat and starch soared, the company could not digest the cost pressure and raised the price of the product since July 15.
It is understood that the price increase of meat-pig spreads has exceeded 100% year-on-year, reaching a rare height in history. Feng Yonghui believes that this reflects that the slaughter companies have had to move the high pig prices to meat prices and eventually pass them on to consumers because of the recent reduction in pig sources and difficulties in grabbing pigs.
For this kind of price transmission, Li Xunlei believes that edible oil and other products do not have a large weight in the CPI. The key is that the price rise of these products should not cause a chain reaction. If there is a chain reaction, high inflation will be a long process.
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