Experts: China's grain self-sufficiency rate is less affected by international food prices

In 2011, the country’s total grain output was 114.24 billion kilograms, an increase of 49.5 billion kilograms from 2010, an increase of 4.5%. The picture shows the farmers harvesting mature millet in Chenjiashan Village, Nanlushan Town, Wuyuan County, Shandong Province.

Recently, international food prices have skyrocketed. Data show that since June of this year, international corn prices have soared by 50%, has risen to historical highs, and soybean and wheat prices have also risen by about 30%. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization released a report that the global food price index covering 55 kinds of food products jumped 6.1% in July, the first time in four months. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned that the world is "very close" to the new round of food crisis. However, experts pointed out that due to the high self-sufficiency rate of grain in China, the impact of fluctuations in international food prices on China is small and there is no need to panic.

The drastic increase in food prices due to drought-prone food in the United States and Russia is mainly due to droughts in the world's grain-producing countries such as the United States and Russia. Professor Chang Qing, director of the Center for Futures and Financial Derivatives at the China Agricultural University, said in an interview with this reporter that the sharp increase in international grain prices was mainly due to the drought in the United States and other countries. The drought in the United States in 50 years will inevitably lead to food production cuts. Soared.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced on August 8th that due to natural disasters such as continuous drought, 44 counties in 12 states have been identified as major disaster areas for natural disasters. As of August 5, the United States expects the "very poor" and "poor" soybean crops to increase to 39% of the total, exceeding the 1988 disaster level. This percentage of corn crops has risen to 50%. The proportion has increased to 59%. In Russia, officials from the Ministry of Agriculture stated at the end of July that a total of 16 federal entities across the Russian Federation had been affected by drought, and farmlands affected by drought accounted for 5% to 6% of the total area planted, possibly reducing the Russian grain production forecast by up to 17% this year. In addition, major grain-producing countries such as Ukraine and Kazakhstan have also experienced various degrees of dry weather, and the prospects for grain production are worrying.

Capital speculation also added a fire to food prices. According to Liu Xintao, member of the Board of Education of the Dashizhai Futures Institute, weather conditions in the United States and production cuts are real, but what the market can't ignore is its huge social inventory. The current situation is that the U.S. funds want to take the opportunity to increase prices through the theme of weather. Some experts also pointed out that in the end it is not hype but supply and demand determine prices. Chang Qing believes that food production is expected to decrease, but demand does not decrease. Therefore, whether speculation or not, food will inevitably rise in price.

China's self-sufficiency rate is highly affected. The United States is the world's first granary. Statistics show that US corn exports account for nearly half of global exports, and supplies nearly 35% of corn and soybeans to the world. In today's economic globalization, changes in food prices in the United States and other grain-producing countries will trigger fluctuations in food prices in other countries. The World Bank recently warned that the drought situation in major grain-producing countries such as the United States, Russia and India has already pushed up international food prices and will threaten the quality of life of the world's poor.

China is an importer of corn and soybeans. Does the rise in international food prices affect the domestic market? "There is little impact on China." Chang Qing said that because of the year-round bumper harvest in China, there are more grain imports in the first half of the year and the country's reserves are adequate.

It is understood that China has long adhered to the basic principle of ensuring food security in the country, and the self-sufficiency rate of grain has maintained over 95% for many years. Summer grain was awarded “Nine Lianfeng” and there was sufficient food stock. According to customs statistics, soybeans, corn, wheat, barley, rice, and rice have all increased significantly in the first half of the year.

Scholar Xing Lijian pointed out that China's rations are rice and wheat, and both the self-sufficiency rate of rations and the per capita ration reserves are among the highest in the world. A very small amount of rice and wheat are imported every year.

Regarding the rising price of corn and soybeans, Chang Qing believes that the impact on China is also limited. He analyzed that, first of all, soybeans are oily crops, soybean oil is less, and rapeseeds, peanuts and other varieties of oil crop reserves, because China's rapeseed, peanuts and other crops did not cut production. Second, although there are pests and diseases in China in these two days, there is plenty of rain in the north, and after the problem of pests and diseases is solved, corn can be harvested.

The food emergency safety net should be established However, industry insiders pointed out that with the expansion of China's grain imports in the past two years, international grain price volatility should be prevented from being transmitted to the country. Experts suggest that China can adopt a diversification strategy on grain import policies; companies can use market methods to prevent domestic stable prices from being affected by global food prices.

Chang Qing believes that grain production is cyclical, and the counter-cyclical grain adjustment mechanism established by China through the Central Reserve Grain Corporation has matured. However, in the future, there is another important issue that needs attention: Chinese enterprises should use modern market economic methods to manage food price fluctuations, and should use the futures market for hedging to protect themselves from price fluctuations. International food prices often change. Foreign countries use the hedging of futures markets to avoid the risk of price fluctuations. The awareness of Chinese companies in this area is relatively poor, and once the price fluctuates, they hope that the country will support them.

“The future food prices may still be operating at a high level. If they are handled improperly, there will be large fluctuations and even a food crisis.” Fang Jian, an FAO economist at the United Nations, believes that at the national level, the establishment of a food emergency safety net for food The stability of the market is crucial. Taking China as an example, soybeans and corn are two major crops imported by China. As the two crops are seriously affected by the drought, China should act immediately to prevent the transmission of corn prices to wheat, rice and livestock products. In addition, it is also very important to strengthen the domestic agricultural product market information system to ensure normal market operations and prevent food speculation.

Aluminum Alloy External Fixators

Surgical External Fixation,External Fixation Orthopaedic,External Fixators Bone Orthopaedic ,Multiple Consumables Fixators

Jiangsu Health Medical Technology Development Co., Ltd. , https://www.medicalhos.com