The price of vitamins is still at a low level or the industry turns

Business Club May 26 News Vitamin belongs to the raw material medicine industry, China's raw material medicine sales in January to March 2011 was 66.1 billion yuan, an increase of 22.30%, a year-on-year increase of 12.01%. However, vitamin product prices still hover at the bottom, taking vitamin B2 as an example. Its price has fallen from the peak of 850 yuan/kg in October 2007 to the current price of 140 yuan/kg; the prices of vitamin C and vitamin E are at a low point.

The "Guidance Catalogue for the Adjustment of Industrial Structures (2011 Edition)" has been implemented since June 1, 2011, and has imposed restrictions on the capacity to build or expand vitamins. Analysts of Aijian Securities believe that it is possible to look for new and expanded varieties restricted by the NDRC. The leading company, and give the industry "stronger than the market" rating.

The policy is good for the vitamin industry Vitamins are very important components of APIs. Raw material medicine is the most volatile sub-sector in the pharmaceutical industry. Affected by the sharp fluctuations in raw material prices and fluctuations in downstream demand, the industry’s operating income growth, total profit growth and gross profit margin have bottomed out from May to August 2009. After that, revenue, gross profit, and gross profit margin all rebounded.

From the point of view of the monthly changes in the production of APIs, the volatility of production is relatively large, which is significantly affected by the economic cycle. Over the period from October 2008 to June 2009, more than 22% of production fell. After four consecutive months of production recovery after 2011, Aijian Securities believes that the API sector will bottom out.

The National Development and Reform Commission revised the "Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2005)" and formed the "Guiding Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2011 Edition)". The new regulations will come into force on June 1, 2011. For the production of vitamin raw materials, the relevant regulations are stipulated, and restrictions are placed on the construction of new or expanded Gulong acid and vitamin C raw powder production equipment, and the production of vitamin B1, vitamin B2, vitamin B12, and vitamin E raw materials for new applications such as pharmaceuticals, food, feed, and cosmetics.

Aijian Securities said that the NDRC's restrictions on API-related products will reduce the excess production capacity of vitamin APIs and will help improve the current supply and demand relationship of related products of listed companies. At present, many vitamin APIs are at a low price, limiting the disorderly expansion of production capacity. It will prompt the price to rise from a low level, which is good for the related listed companies of vitamins and raw material medicines.

The industry has gradually showed signs of recovery. In the first quarter of 2011, domestic exports of vitamin A were 777 tons, an increase of 36% year-on-year, and the average export prices had declined. On March 23rd, international pharmaceutical giant DSM announced that the price of vitamin A and vitamin E and calcium pantothenate increased by 10%. Domestic manufacturers of new and into the increase of vitamin A feed grade and vitamin E feed grade offer, vitamin A prices rose from the beginning of 128 yuan / kg up to the current 145 yuan / kg.

The price of vitamin E is relatively stable. Looking at the overall trend, it is currently in a low state. With the price increase of DSM and the recovery of the global economy, vitamin A and vitamin E will gradually recover.

The domestic listed companies that produce vitamin A and vitamin E mainly include New Hecheng (002001) and Zhejiang Pharmaceutical (600216). New Hecheng Vitamin A sales revenue is relatively large, in 2010 was 564 million yuan, gross profit margin rose from 14.22% in 2007 to 50% in 2008, after the decline in product prices, gross margin decreased. The change in vitamin A price is more flexible for new synthetics. Xinhecheng and Zhejiang Pharmaceutical's vitamin E sales revenue is very close. New Hecheng's 2010 vitamin E sales revenue was 2.173 billion yuan, and Zhejiang medicine was 2.199 billion yuan.

The price of vitamin B2 has fallen from its peak of 850 yuan/kg in October 2007 to the current price of 140 yuan/kg. The drop is very large, mainly due to the oversupply. In May 2011, Guangji Pharmaceutical (000952) raised the price of 80% feed grade vitamin B2 by RMB 20/kg. As the largest producer of vitamin B2, the performance of Guangji Pharmaceutical is closely related to the change of vitamin B2 price. The company's raw material drug series revenue decreased from 728 million yuan in 2007 to 425 million yuan in 2010, and the gross profit rate decreased from 60.56%. To 19.74%. The change of vitamin B2 price has greater flexibility for the performance of Guangji Pharmaceutical. At present, vitamin B2 is at a historically low level. If the price rebounds in the future, it will boost the company's performance.

The current capacity of the vitamin C industry is in a surplus state, and the price is at a low level. In March 2011, the export price was 5,681 US dollars per ton, which was lower than the financial crisis at the end of 2008 at the beginning of 2009; in order to standardize the production of vitamin C industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology took the lead in formulating "Vitamin C industry access conditions" is expected to be introduced in the near future, will regulate the vitamin C industry from energy consumption, technical level, environmental protection, safety and other aspects. Aijian Securities is expected to regulate the vitamin C industry. It is of great benefit to the leading domestic vitamin C industry leaders Northeast Pharmaceutical (000597) and North China Pharmaceutical (600812).

The price of vitamins and the industry boom are all at the bottom. In the first half of this year, some varieties showed signs of recovery. The key to recovery is to solve the problem of overcapacity. The National Development and Reform Commission has restricted the establishment of new and expanded vitamins to provide corresponding opportunities. Aijian Securities believes that it is possible to look for the corresponding leading companies from the NDRC's restrictions on newly-built and expanded varieties. Vitamin C can focus on Northeast Pharmaceutical, a leading company with high performance flexibility. Vitamin B2 can focus on the largest manufacturing company. Guangji Pharmaceutical and Vitamin E can pay attention to the new Hecheng and Zhejiang Medicine.

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