"Price increase" policy drives wheat spot prices higher

In order to protect farmers' enthusiasm for grain production and promote the development of food production, in 2013, the country will continue to implement the minimum purchase price policy in the main wheat production areas and appropriately increase the minimum wheat purchase price in 2013. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice in recent days. After being reported to the State Council for approval, the minimum purchase price for wheat (third class) produced in 2013 was raised to 112 yuan per 50 kilograms, an increase of 10 yuan over 2012.

According to Xi Jingtao, deputy general manager of Hebei Hengshui Peace State Grain Reserve Co., Ltd., the increase in the minimum purchase price of wheat in 2013 is basically in line with market expectations and is also basically close to the current domestic wheat spot market price level. "But due to consideration of policy-based bullish factors, it is estimated that in the short term, it will boost the market's bullish confidence. Zhengzhou's strong wheat futures price will stop falling and rebound," Xi Jingtao said.

“The loading price of bulk grain of national standard white wheat sold by us 10 days ago was 2,240 yuan/ton, which has now been raised to 2,290–2,300 yuan/ton. The main reason is that the country raised the minimum wheat purchase price in 2013, and many trades Both commercial and milling companies believe that there is no room for downward growth in wheat prices.” Cui Wanping, a wheat trader in Henan County, Henan Province, said that most grain companies are active in purchasing attitudes, and some grain banks and traders have also increased their hoarding. It is estimated that wheat Prices will experience a faster upward process in the short term.

At the same time, the flour mill also used the opportunity to increase the ex-factory price of flour. “A bag of steamed bread has risen by 3 yuan, which is the second increase in prices in the past two months.” Niu Xinwei, supplier of Shantou, Bishui Town, Biyang County, Henan Province, said that although local wheat prices have not risen, However, the flour mills have continuously raised the ex-factory price of flour, citing “the state raised the minimum wheat purchase price in 2013”. It is understood that the prices of domestic wheat flour and other downstream products have been significantly higher recently, mainly because of higher expectations from producers, and the increase in wheat procurement production is also one of the main factors.

Since September, sunny and sunny weather has appeared in most parts of northern China, which not only contributes to the improvement of the quality of autumn crops such as corn, but also to its maturation, harvesting, and drying. In late September, new domestic corn was listed one after another, but the number of listed and the time to market went far beyond expectations, leading to rapid decline in corn prices in Henan, Shandong, Hebei, etc., such as the acquisition of new corn in Henan (15% -17% moisture) The price is currently only 2060-2120 yuan / ton.

Industry insiders believe that the rapid decline in corn prices may drag down wheat prices. “After corn prices fall sharply, wheat feed demand may continue to decline.” Since the second half of 2009, due to the fact that the price of corn is far higher than the price of wheat, many feed companies and aquaculture companies have used wheat instead of corn as feed ingredients for cost-saving considerations. Feeding has been the main driver of wheat prices in the past two years.

"From a supply perspective, wheat prices are also difficult to continue to rise." The industry insiders said that in order to ensure market supply, stabilize wheat prices, the latter countries may soon put a large number of wheat in the purchase price of 2012 minimum purchase price, which will curb wheat The rise in prices due to policy gains.

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